Crypto
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027?
94%
Limited history+1.5pp
24h activity $2KCloses 1 Apr 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 84% probability for this outcome, a +2.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
84%Probability is barely changed (up 2.0pp). High liquidity supports the reading, but this is not a meaningful move.
Signal: HighCurrent
84%
24h Change
+2.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 36.0pp, from 45% to 81%, between 02:00 and 03:00 UTC.
48%
3 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
48%
3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
47%
3 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
46%
3 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
81%
6 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
84%
7 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 2.0pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 83.5% | +2.0pp | $11K | active |
| March 31, 2027 | 93.5% | +1.5pp | $3K | active |
| September 30, 2027 | 95.6% | +0.1pp | $5K | active |
| June 30, 2027 | 95.5% | +1.0pp | $6K | active |
| December 31, 2027 | 98.3% | +1.4pp | $2K | active |
| June 30, 2026 | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| September 30, 2026 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| March 31, 2026 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if predict.fun officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from predict.fun (https://predict.fun/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC