Politics
LowMarket data current
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat?
32%
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This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
20%
24h Change
-2.8pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
72
Why this may have moved
Attribution is only attempted for meaningful medium- or high-signal moves; thin or low-confidence moves are skipped.
This market will resolve to the political party of the next officially appointed and confirmed Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the Prime Minister must be both formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If the prime minister comes from inside parliament, the party of the Prime Minister will be determined based on their formal party affiliation at the time they become Prime Minister. If the Prime Minister comes from outside parliament, their party will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting on which party they represent, hold membership in, or are formally affiliated with. If no clear affiliation exists, this market will resolve to “Independent/Technocrat”. If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2027, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
32%
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSD | 19.9% | -2.8pp | $14K | active |
| USR | 0.5% | — | $8K | active |
| AUR | 4.6% | -0.05pp | $11K | active |
| PNL | 17.9% | +0.8pp | $1K | active |
| Independent/Technocrat | 32.0% | -2.5pp | $1K | active |
| UDMR | 0.1% | — | $10K | active |
Current implied probability
20%Probability changed modestly over 24h. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable.
Signal: LowThis page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is down 2.8pp. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable; liquidity is $14K and 24h volume is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
18%
5%
0%
1%
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.