Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?
18%
Limited history+5.5pp
24h activity $413Closes 31 Dec 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 31% probability for this outcome, a -16.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
31%Probability moved strongly over 24h. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
31%
24h Change
-16.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 17.0pp, from 31% to 48%, between 15:00 and 16:00 UTC.
44%
15 Sept 2026, 15:00 UTC
40%
15 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC
51%
15 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC
49%
15 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC
48%
19 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC
31%
19 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is down 16.5pp. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited; liquidity is $96 and 24h activity is $40. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FISA Section 702 reauthorization | 18.0% | +5.5pp | $807 | active |
| AI-chip export licensing | 30.5% | -16.5pp | $96 | active |
| Export-control chip security | 30.5% | — | $140 | active |
| Smithsonian Women’s History Museum | 3.5% | -0.7pp | $8K | active |
| Film/TV production expensing | 2.1% | +0.05pp | $8K | active |
| Trump Airport | 3.8% | +0.3pp | $8K | active |
| Critical-minerals stockpile | 13.5% | -0.5pp | $8K | active |
| Data center utility cost protection | 21.0% | -0.5pp | $8K | active |
| DEFIANCE Act | 2.7% | -1.4pp | $8K | active |
| $2.50 Coin | 12.0% | +2.5pp | $8K | active |
| SELF DRIVE Act | 13.8% | +8.0pp | $159 | active |
| SHOWER Act | 16.3% | +2.4pp | $69 | active |
| Credit-card routing competition | 13.5% | +8.0pp | $30 | active |
| NO FAKES Act | 21.5% | — | $8K | active |
| Housing for the 21st Century Act | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that subjects covered AI-chip exports to mandatory congressional review with a statutory blocking period is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes the H.R. 6875 (119th) — “AI OVERWATCH Act.” Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC