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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 0% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Final recorded probability
0%Final outcome: No
This market is final. The figures below are retained as a historical record and are excluded from live rankings and signals.
Final / last recorded
0%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 0.0pp from 0% to 0%, gradually rather than in one jump.
0%
2 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
0%
2 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
0%
2 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
0%
2 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC
0%
2 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
0%
6 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Apr 2026, 03:59 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 6.5% | -1.0pp | $96K | active |
| June 30, 2027 | 33.5% | -2.0pp | $33K | active |
| February 28 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| July 15 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| September 30 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| March 31 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.