Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Export-control chip security become law this year?
25%
Limited history-3.0pp
24h activity $339Closes 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 11% probability for this outcome, a -3.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
11%Recent probability movement (down 3.0pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
11%
24h Change
-3.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 2.0pp, from 13% to 11%, between 11:00 and 12:00 UTC.
14%
3 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
14%
3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
14%
3 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
14%
3 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
11%
7 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
11%
7 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is down 3.0pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FISA Section 702 reauthorization | 10.5% | -3.0pp | $17K | active |
| Export-control chip security | 24.5% | -3.0pp | $11K | active |
| AI-chip export licensing | 14.0% | -31.0pp | $11K | active |
| NO FAKES Act | 7.5% | -0.5pp | $11K | active |
| SHOWER Act | 3.9% | -0.3pp | $14K | active |
| DEFIANCE Act | 4.2% | -0.9pp | $11K | active |
| Data center utility cost protection | 11.5% | -2.0pp | $11K | active |
| Smithsonian Women’s History Museum | 11.2% | -0.3pp | $12K | active |
| Film/TV production expensing | 7.7% | -15.2pp | $11K | active |
| Trump Airport | 2.7% | +0.3pp | $10K | active |
| Critical-minerals stockpile | 14.0% | — | $11K | active |
| $2.50 Coin | 6.5% | -1.5pp | $12K | active |
| SELF DRIVE Act | 4.5% | -1.0pp | $12K | active |
| Credit-card routing competition | 8.5% | -5.0pp | $245 | active |
| Housing for the 21st Century Act | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, for two years is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes Public Law 118-49. Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC