Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?
20%
Limited history-1.5pp
24h activity $55Closes 31 Dec 2026
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Current implied probability
24%Probability moved moderately over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
24%
24h Change
-4.8pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
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Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is down 4.8pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $143 and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FISA Section 702 reauthorization | 19.5% | -1.5pp | $10K | active |
| Export-control chip security | 55.0% | — | $70 | active |
| Smithsonian Women’s History Museum | 5.8% | -0.05pp | $221 | active |
| Trump Airport | 7.5% | -0.1pp | $238 | active |
| $2.50 Coin | 9.0% | — | $9K | active |
| SHOWER Act | 40.8% | -1.4pp | $70 | active |
| SELF DRIVE Act | 35.3% | -6.2pp | $55 | active |
| Critical-minerals stockpile | 37.5% | +5.0pp | $94 | active |
| Credit-card routing competition | 24.4% | -4.8pp | $143 | active |
| Film/TV production expensing | 35.5% | -12.5pp | $58 | active |
| Data center utility cost protection | 48.0% | +0.5pp | $51 | active |
| AI-chip export licensing | 46.5% | -4.0pp | $58 | active |
| DEFIANCE Act | 38.5% | -10.0pp | $60 | active |
| Housing for the 21st Century Act | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that requires two unaffiliated networks for processing covered credit-card transactions is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes the S.Amdt. 2229 to S. 1582 — “Credit Card Competition Act of 2025.” Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
20%
55%
6%
8%
9%
41%