Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30?
5%
Limited history-5.0pp
24h activity $8KCloses 1 Oct 2026
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 40% probability for this outcome, a +2.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
40%Probability changed slightly over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.
Signal: LowCurrent
40%
24h Change
+2.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 14.5pp, from 38% to 52%, between 07:00 and 08:00 UTC.
44%
14 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC
40%
14 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC
39%
14 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC
38%
14 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC
52%
18 Sept 2026, 08:00 UTC
40%
18 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 2.0pp. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read; liquidity is $5K and 24h activity is $2K. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30 | 4.5% | -5.0pp | $21K | active |
| December 31 | 39.5% | +2.0pp | $5K | active |
| January 9 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| January 31 | 0.0% | -1.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| March 31 | 0.0% | -0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| April 30 | 0.0% | -0.7pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -2.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| July 31 | 0.0% | -0.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| May 31 | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| August 31 | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| March 8 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
If María Corina Machado visits Venezuela between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as María Corina Machado physically entering the terrestrial territory of Venezuela. Whether or not María Corina Machado enters Venezuelan airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC