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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 33% probability for this outcome, a +1.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
33%Probability is barely changed (up 1.0pp). High liquidity supports the reading, but this is not a meaningful move.
Signal: HighCurrent
33%
24h Change
+1.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 5.0pp, from 30% to 35%, between 11:00 and 12:00 UTC.
29%
8 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC
29%
8 Oct 2026, 08:00 UTC
29%
8 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC
29%
8 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
35%
9 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
33%
12 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.0pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.
Forward watch
Tyler Robinson has been charged with Aggravated Murder by The State of Utah for the death of Charlie Kirk. You can read more about that here: https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON (OTN: 70090584) by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No". If this specific charge is dropped, or otherwise changed such that it is no longer considered a criminal homicide offense (https://le.utah.gov/xcode/Title76/Chapter5/76-5-S201.html), this market will immediately resolve to "No". If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open until the resolution date (July 31) to consider further retrials. If a homicide conviction has not been rendered by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Resolution source: https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Aug 2027, 03:59 UTC