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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 12% probability for this outcome, a -1.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
12%Probability is barely changed (down 1.0pp). High liquidity supports the reading, but this is not a meaningful move.
Signal: HighCurrent
12%
24h Change
-1.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 1.0pp, from 13% to 12%, between 14:00 and 15:00 UTC.
13%
28 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC
13%
28 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC
13%
28 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC
13%
28 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC
12%
2 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
12%
2 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.0pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2028, 04:59 UTC