Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
0%
Limited history
24h activity $151KCloses 8 Nov 2028
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 0% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
0%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
0%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 0.1pp from 0% to 0%, gradually rather than in one jump.
0%
28 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
0%
28 Sept 2026, 01:00 UTC
0%
28 Sept 2026, 02:00 UTC
0%
28 Sept 2026, 03:00 UTC
0%
28 Sept 2026, 04:00 UTC
0%
2 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James | 0.1% | — | $2.7M | active |
| Jon Ossoff | 14.9% | — | $337K | active |
| Hunter Biden | 0.3% | -0.2pp | $1.2M | active |
| Mark Cuban | 0.4% | — | $1.8M | active |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 16.6% | +0.4pp | $380K | active |
| James Talarico | 2.5% | +0.2pp | $503K | active |
| Mark Kelly | 2.6% | -0.05pp | $350K | active |
| Gavin Newsom | 16.3% | +0.2pp | $458K | active |
| Andy Beshear | 3.0% | +0.3pp | $422K | active |
| Andrew Yang | 0.1% | — | $2.6M | active |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5.0% | — | $333K | active |
| Graham Platner | 0.1% | — | $2.5M | active |
| MrBeast | 0.1% | — | $2.8M | active |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1.1% | — | $850K | active |
| Zohran Mamdani | 0.1% | — | $2.6M | active |
| Beto O’Rourke | 0.1% | — | $2.8M | active |
| Oprah Winfrey | 0.1% | — | $2.9M | active |
| Tim Walz | 0.1% | — | $2.8M | active |
| George Clooney | 0.1% | — | $2.7M | active |
| Kim Kardashian | 0.1% | — | $2.7M | active |
| Liz Cheney | 0.1% | — | $2.8M | active |
| John Fetterman | 0.1% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Alex Padilla | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Adam Schiff | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Jon Stewart | 1.1% | -0.1pp | $318K | active |
| Roy Cooper | 0.1% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Jared Polis | 0.1% | — | $926K | active |
| Wes Moore | 2.0% | — | $294K | active |
| Kamala Harris | 7.3% | +0.05pp | $278K | active |
| Raphael Warnock | 0.6% | — | $1.5M | active |
| Stephen A. Smith | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Rahm Emanuel | 1.9% | — | $875K | active |
| Josh Shapiro | 6.0% | +0.2pp | $274K | active |
| Bernie Sanders | 0.7% | — | $869K | active |
| Jasmine Crockett | 0.1% | — | $2.3M | active |
| Ro Khanna | 1.4% | — | $363K | active |
| Abigail Spanberger | 0.1% | — | $499K | active |
| J.B. Pritzker | 1.3% | — | $408K | active |
| Elissa Slotkin | 0.1% | — | $1.1M | active |
| Phil Murphy | 0.1% | — | $2.5M | active |
| Ruben Gallego | 0.1% | — | $1.0M | active |
| Barack Obama | 0.1% | — | $2.5M | active |
| Chelsea Clinton | 0.7% | — | $540K | active |
| Michelle Obama | 0.3% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Chris Van Hollen | 0.1% | — | $829K | active |
| Hillary Clinton | 0.1% | — | $2.8M | active |
| Josh Stein | 0.1% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Gina Raimondo | 0.1% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 0.8% | — | $187K | active |
| Chris Murphy | 0.5% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Cory Booker | 0.7% | — | $1.5M | active |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 0.1% | — | $516K | active |
| Mitch Landrieu | 0.1% | — | $1.1M | active |
Probability sum: 91.0% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 8 Nov 2028, 04:59 UTC