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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 3% probability for this outcome, a -0.7pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
3%Recent probability movement (down 0.7pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
3%
24h Change
-0.7pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 1.0pp from 4% to 3%, gradually rather than in one jump.
4%
27 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC
4%
27 Sept 2026, 23:00 UTC
4%
28 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
4%
28 Sept 2026, 01:00 UTC
3%
1 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
3%
2 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.7pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC