Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Outcomes divergingSignal: Medium
MLB: 2026 American League Champion
2 active outcomes in this event
Tampa Bay Rays
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Tampa Bay Rays moved +19.9pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: rose 19.1pp from 38% to 57%, gradually rather than in one jump. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #7 of 40 moves reviewed: +19.9pp move, $2K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$2K traded in 24h$7K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 18 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 15 outcomes
9 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Outcomes divergingSignal: Medium
WNBA: 2026 Champion
2 active outcomes in this event
Atlanta Dream
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Atlanta Dream moved -14.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 12.5pp, from 47% to 35%, between 21:00 and 22:00 UTC. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #8 of 40 moves reviewed: -14.0pp move, $7K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$7K traded in 24h$19K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 18 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 15 outcomes
9 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
Next Secretary-General of the United Nations
8 active outcomes in this event
Rebeca Grynspan
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Rebeca Grynspan moved -12.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 7.5pp, from 50% to 42%, between 21:00 and 22:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #9 of 40 moves reviewed: -12.5pp move, $513 activity, other outcomes moved too.
$513 traded in 24h$3K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 18 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 8 outcomes
2 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Cause not yet reportedSignal: Medium
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a technocrat?
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a technocrat?
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a technocrat? moved +11.6pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 9.0pp, from 96% to 87%, between 19:00 and 20:00 UTC. The move pushed the market close to a final outcome.
Ranked #10 of 40 moves reviewed: +11.6pp move, $2K activity.
$2K traded in 24hLiquidity $11KUpdated 18 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTCCause not yet reported