Geopolitics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
11%
Limited history-1.0pp
24h activity $55KCloses 1 Nov 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 22% probability for this outcome, a -0.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
22%Recent probability movement (down 0.5pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
22%
24h Change
-0.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 7.5pp from 30% to 22%, gradually rather than in one jump.
30%
28 Sept 2026, 13:00 UTC
30%
28 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC
29%
28 Sept 2026, 15:25 UTC
29%
28 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC
24%
30 Sept 2026, 13:41 UTC
22%
2 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 10.5% | -1.0pp | $122K | active |
| December 31 | 22.0% | -0.5pp | $139K | active |
| December 31, 2025 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| August 31 | 0.0% | -0.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -0.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| March 31 | 0.0% | -0.4pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between January 2, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify. Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC