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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 33% probability for this outcome, a -3.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
33%Probability moved moderately over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.
Signal: LowCurrent
33%
24h Change
-3.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
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Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is down 3.5pp. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read; liquidity is $7K and 24h activity is $1K. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
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