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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 18% probability for this outcome, a +3.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
18%Recent probability movement (up 3.0pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
18%
24h Change
+3.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 3.0pp, from 13% to 16%, between 14:00 and 15:00 UTC.
15%
28 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC
15%
28 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC
15%
28 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC
15%
28 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC
16%
2 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
18%
2 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is up 3.0pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC