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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 98% probability for this outcome, a +12.3pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
98%Recent probability movement (up 12.3pp) is strong, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
98%
24h Change
+12.3pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 26.8pp from 71% to 98%, gradually rather than in one jump.
71%
14 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
71%
14 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
71%
14 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
59%
14 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC
79%
14 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
98%
18 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is up 12.3pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next officially appointed and confirmed Prime Minister of Romania was not a sitting member of the Romanian parliament at the time of their appointment as Prime Minister and does not represent or have a clear political affiliation with any Romanian political party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To count for resolution, the Prime Minister must be both formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No.” The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania and a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2028, 04:59 UTC