Geopolitics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?
28%
Limited history+6.9pp
24h activity $256Closes 1 Jul 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 1% probability for this outcome, a -0.05pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
1%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
1%
24h Change
-0.05pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 0.0pp from 1% to 1%, gradually rather than in one jump.
1%
6 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
1%
6 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
1%
6 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
1%
6 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
2%
8 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
1%
10 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $11K and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Grossi | 28.4% | +6.9pp | $487 | active |
| Macky Sall | 3.3% | -0.3pp | $13K | active |
| Rebeca Grynspan | 42.0% | — | $1K | active |
| Michelle Bachelet | 1.4% | -0.05pp | $11K | active |
| María Fernanda Espinosa | 9.8% | +0.05pp | $11K | active |
| Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett | 15.9% | +0.2pp | $11K | active |
| Olara Otunnu | 0.6% | — | $11K | active |
| Ivonne de Baki | 0.6% | — | $11K | active |
Probability sum: 101.8% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
A selection process is currently being held to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations, with the current term set to end on 31 December 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. A recommendation by the United Nations Security Council alone will not be sufficient for resolution. Any interim or caretaker Secretary-General will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Secretary-General is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jul 2027, 03:59 UTC