Politics
MediumMarket data current
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
35%
Limited history
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Current
3%
24h Change
-1.4pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
85
Why this may have moved
Move attribution has not been checked for this market yet.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
35%
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandru Nazare | 34.5% | — | $88K | active |
| Adrian Veștea | 0.6% | — | $28K | active |
| Dacian Cioloș | 0.3% | +0.1pp | $17K | active |
| Eugen Tomac | 3.3% | -1.4pp | $19K | active |
| Sorin Grindeanu | 11.8% | — | $43K | active |
| Lucian Isar | 0.6% | -0.1pp | $14K |
Current implied probability
3%Probability moved down 1.4pp with solid liquidity and activity backing the shift.
Signal: HighThis page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.4pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
1%
0%
12%
1%
0%
| active |
| Sebastian Burduja | 0.1% | — | $13K | active |
| Traian Basescu | 0.3% | -0.1pp | $15K | active |
| Elena Lasconi | 0.1% | — | $20K | active |
| Dominic Fritz | 0.1% | — | $15K | active |
| Cătălin Drulă | 0.2% | -0.1pp | $21K | active |
| Mugur Isărescu | 0.1% | — | $15K | active |
| Emil Boc | 0.1% | — | $13K | active |
| Victor Ponta | 0.3% | — | $23K | active |
| Vasile Dîncu | 0.3% | — | $17K | active |
| Anca Dragu | 0.4% | — | $16K | active |
| Ciprian Ciucu | 0.6% | — | $13K | active |
| Cătălin Predoiu | 1.4% | — | $21K | active |
| Delia Velculescu | 1.3% | -0.05pp | $16K | active |
| Dragoș Pîslaru | 1.4% | — | $14K | active |
| Radu Burnete | 1.9% | — | $16K | active |
| Ionuț Dumitru | 0.6% | -0.1pp | $12K | active |
| Marcel Ciolacu | 0.1% | — | $25K | active |
| Alexandru Rafila | 0.5% | +0.05pp | $13K | active |
| Raluca Turcan | 0.5% | — | $13K | active |
| Nicolae Ciucă | 0.1% | — | $15K | active |
| Șerban Matei | 0.7% | — | $12K | active |
| Ilie Bolojan | 3.8% | — | $16K | active |
| Calin Georgescu | 1.1% | — | $15K | active |
| George Simion | 1.6% | — | $10K | active |
| Dan Motreanu | 1.3% | +0.3pp | $13K | active |
| Siegfried Mureșan | 3.3% | -0.05pp | $11K | active |
| Mircea Geoană | 0.1% | — | $15K | active |
| Hunor Kelemen | 0.7% | — | $17K | active |
| Alexandru Rogobete | 0.9% | — | $13K | active |
| Lucian Croitoru | 0.6% | — | $11K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.