Finance
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?
12%
Limited history-6.5pp
24h activity $21KCloses 1 Jan 2028
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 29% probability for this outcome, a +3.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
29%Probability moved up 3.0pp with solid liquidity and activity backing the shift.
Signal: HighCurrent
29%
24h Change
+3.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 11.0pp from 18% to 29%, gradually rather than in one jump.
18%
11 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC
18%
11 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
14%
11 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
12%
11 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC
32%
14 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
29%
15 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is up 3.0pp. Liquidity and activity are strong enough to treat this as a more reliable consensus shift.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1.75–$2.0T | 28.5% | +3.0pp | $28K | active |
| $2.25–$2.5T | 11.5% | -6.5pp | $29K | active |
| $1.5–$1.75T | 16.9% | +6.7pp | $20K | active |
| $2.0–$2.25T | 21.8% | -5.3pp | $20K | active |
| <$1.25T | 2.9% | +0.4pp | $16K | active |
| $1.25–$1.5T | 5.0% | +0.4pp | $16K | active |
| $2.5–$2.75T | 5.1% | -2.8pp | $18K | active |
| No IPO by December 31, 2027 | 2.5% | +0.3pp | $19K | active |
| $3.0T+ | 3.4% | -1.6pp | $26K | active |
| $2.75–$3.0T | 2.4% | -1.0pp | $16K | active |
Probability sum: 99.8% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2028, 04:59 UTC