Current implied probability
5%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: MediumCurrent
5%
24h Change
+0.3pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Haddad | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $142K | active |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 85.5% | -1.5pp | $56K | active |
| Camilo Santana | 0.3% | -0.1pp | $108K | active |
| Michelle Bolsonaro | 0.3% | — | $103K | active |
| Ratinho Júnior | 0.1% | — | $128K | active |
| Aldo Rebelo | 0.1% | — | $140K | active |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 7.5% | +0.8pp | $104K | active |
| Tarcisio de Freitas | 0.1% | — | $100K | active |
| Eduardo Bolsonaro | 0.1% | — | $128K | active |
| Romeu Zema | 0.3% | +0.1pp | $111K | active |
| Geraldo Alckmin | 0.1% | — | $62K | active |
| Renan Santos | 5.4% | — | $113K | active |
| Jair Bolsonaro | 0.1% | — | $94K | active |
| Eduardo Leite | 0.1% | — | $134K | active |
| Ronaldo Caiado | 0.7% | +0.1pp | $61K | active |
| Tereza Cristina | 0.1% | — | $42K | active |
| Helder Barbalho | 0.1% | — | $56K | active |
Probability sum: 101.2% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 4 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
0%
86%
0%
0%
0%
0%