Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?
24%
Limited history-2.5pp
24h activity $28Closes 4 Oct 2026
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Current implied probability
3%Probability moved moderately over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
3%
24h Change
-4.3pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is down 4.3pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $11K and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lula da Silva 10-15% | 24.3% | -2.5pp | $18K | active |
| Flávio Bolsonaro <5% | 5.8% | +0.3pp | $20K | active |
| Lula da Silva 5-10% | 39.5% | +2.0pp | $4K | active |
| Renan Santos Victory | 0.7% | -0.2pp | $22K | active |
| Lula da Silva <5% | 20.5% | — | $11K | active |
| Lula da Silva 15%+ | 4.5% | -0.3pp | $18K | active |
| Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+ | 3.6% | +0.1pp | $12K | active |
| Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% | 3.2% | -4.3pp | $11K | active |
| Other | 1.1% | -0.3pp | $17K | active |
| Ratinho Júnior Victory | 0.5% | — | $12K | active |
| Tarcisio de Freitas Victory | 0.3% | -0.05pp | $18K | active |
Probability sum: 103.9% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 4 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
24%
6%
40%
1%
21%
4%