Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?
30%
Limited history-1.5pp
24h activity $5KCloses 5 Oct 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 70% probability for this outcome, a +1.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
70%Probability is barely changed (up 1.5pp). High liquidity supports the reading, but this is not a meaningful move.
Signal: HighCurrent
70%
24h Change
+1.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 7.0pp, from 68% to 75%, between 19:00 and 20:00 UTC.
63%
28 Sept 2026, 09:00 UTC
63%
28 Sept 2026, 10:00 UTC
63%
28 Sept 2026, 11:00 UTC
63%
28 Sept 2026, 12:00 UTC
75%
1 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
70%
2 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.5pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elmano de Freitas | 70.0% | +1.5pp | $60K | active |
| Ciro Gomes | 29.5% | -1.5pp | $58K | active |
| Eduardo Girão | 0.1% | — | $38K | active |
| Capitão Wagner | 0.1% | — | $39K | active |
| Roberto Cláudio | 0.1% | — | $38K | active |
| Camilo Santana | 0.1% | — | $34K | active |
Probability sum: 99.7% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 5 Oct 2026, 03:59 UTC