Crypto
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0100 by December 31, 2026?
26%
Limited history-7.5pp
24h activity $117Closes 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 100% probability for this outcome, a +12.4pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
100%Recent probability movement (up 12.4pp) is strong, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
100%
24h Change
+12.4pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 12.5pp, from 88% to 100%, between 18:00 and 19:00 UTC.
88%
30 Sept 2026, 04:00 UTC
88%
30 Sept 2026, 05:00 UTC
86%
30 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
86%
30 Sept 2026, 07:00 UTC
100%
3 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
100%
4 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is up 12.4pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 0.0062 | 100.0% | +12.4pp | $46K | active |
| ↑ 0.0100 | 25.5% | -7.5pp | $232 | active |
| ↑ 0.0090 | 29.5% | -2.5pp | $585 | active |
| ↑ 0.0070 | 56.0% | +23.0pp | $181 | active |
| ↓ 0.0026 | 43.0% | — | $153 | active |
| ↓ 0.0010 | 9.5% | — | $18K | active |
| ↑ 0.0080 | 45.5% | +6.0pp | $379 | active |
| ↑ 0.0150 | 8.5% | — | $536 | active |
| ↓ 0.0030 | 51.0% | — | $220 | active |
| ↑ 0.0120 | 17.5% | — | $152 | active |
| ↓ 0.0026 | 100.0% | +21.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 0.0030 | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ 0.0022 | 100.0% | +18.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ 0.0018 | 100.0% | +1.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ 0.0034 | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ 0.0014 | 100.0% | +18.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 0.0058 | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 0.0054 | 100.0% | +68.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 0.0038 | 100.0% | +44.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 0.0034 | 100.0% | +9.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 0.0042 | 100.0% | +63.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 0.0050 | 100.0% | +54.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 0.0046 | 100.0% | +41.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ 0.0038 | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ 0.0042 | 100.0% | +15.4pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Pump.fun (PUMP/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 17:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the PUMP/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/PUMP_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance PUMP/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTC