Sport
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Caio Borralho fight Joe Pyfer next?
14%
Limited history+1.3pp
24h activity $385Closes 1 Apr 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 16% probability for this outcome, a -10.7pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
16%Probability moved strongly over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
16%
24h Change
-10.7pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 10.2pp, from 33% to 23%, between 16:00 and 17:00 UTC.
8%
28 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC
7%
28 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC
7%
28 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC
7%
28 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC
23%
1 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
16%
2 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is down 10.7pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $739 and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caio Borralho | 13.9% | +1.3pp | $593 | active |
| Dricus Du Plessis | 14.9% | +2.4pp | $425 | active |
| Brendan Allen | 11.7% | +1.3pp | $547 | active |
| Anthony Hernandez | 15.0% | +0.1pp | $538 | active |
| Nassourdine Imavov | 15.5% | -10.7pp | $739 | active |
Probability sum: 71.1% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve according to the next UFC fighter that Joe Pyfer is officially announced to face in a UFC bout. Resolution for this market will be based on the next UFC fighter that Joe Pyfer is officially announced to fight, regardless of whether the fight ends up taking place. Only official announcements from the UFC, which include a scheduled date for the bout, will count. Announcements with no date or which do not confirm that the fight is official, speculation, or other unofficial announcements will not count. If Joe Pyfer is officially announced to fight any non-listed fighter or no qualifying announcement is made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Apr 2027, 00:00 UTC