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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 100% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Final recorded probability
100%Final outcome: Yes
This market is final. The figures below are retained as a historical record and are excluded from live rankings and signals.
Probability history will appear after additional syncs.
100%
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
The timeline will become useful after additional syncs record a second probability point.
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 5 Oct 2026, 03:59 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 0.1% | -61.0pp | $258K | resolved |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 100.0% | +60.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| Renan Santos | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Helder Barbalho | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Aldo Rebelo | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Fernando Haddad | 0.1% | — | $414K | resolved |
| Ratinho Júnior | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Ronaldo Caiado | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Romeu Zema | 0.1% | — | $362K | resolved |
| Augusto Cury | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Tarcisio de Freitas | 0.1% | — | $391K | resolved |
| Geraldo Alckmin | 0.1% | — | $398K | resolved |
| Michelle Bolsonaro | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Camilo Santana | 0.1% | — | $395K | resolved |
| Jair Bolsonaro | 0.1% | — | $393K | resolved |
| Eduardo Bolsonaro | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Eduardo Leite | 0.1% | — | $426K | resolved |
| Tereza Cristina | 0.1% | — | $362K | resolved |
Probability sum: 100.4% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)