Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
0%
Limited history-0.3pp
24h activity $101KCloses 30 Sept 2026
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Current implied probability
71%Probability is barely changed (down 1.0pp). High liquidity supports the reading, but this is not a meaningful move.
Signal: HighCurrent
71%
24h Change
-1.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.0pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yabloko | 0.3% | -0.3pp | $204K | active |
| A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) | 0.3% | — | $399K | active |
| United Russia (ER) | 70.5% | -1.0pp | $329K | active |
| Rodina | 0.3% | +0.1pp | $229K | active |
| New People (NL) | 19.3% | -0.5pp | $152K | active |
| Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) | 6.3% | +0.8pp | $151K | active |
| Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) | 1.6% | — | $222K | active |
| Civic Platform (GP) | 0.1% | — | $410K | active |
Probability sum: 98.6% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 30 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
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19%
6%
2%