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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 100% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Final recorded probability
100%Final outcome: Yes
This market is final. The figures below are retained as a historical record and are excluded from live rankings and signals.
Probability history will appear after additional syncs.
100%
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
The timeline will become useful after additional syncs record a second probability point.
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 30 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Russia (ER) | 100.0% | +18.4pp | $1.0M | resolved |
| New People (NL) | 0.0% | -18.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) | 0.0% | -0.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) | 0.0% | -1.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| Yabloko | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $726K | resolved |
| A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Rodina | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Civic Platform (GP) | 0.1% | — | $1.1M | resolved |
Probability sum: 100.0% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)