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Last recorded probability
0%Trading is no longer treated as active while the final result is pending. The figures below are historical and excluded from live rankings and signals.
Final / last recorded
0%
24h Change
-26.9pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
24
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Aligned's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Aligned will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Aligned (https://x.com/alignedlayer) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2028, 05:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $200M | 0.1% | -55.5pp | $9K | awaiting resolution |
| $50M | 100.0% | +0.7pp | $13K | awaiting resolution |
| $20M | 100.0% | +0.3pp | $14K | awaiting resolution |
| $300M | 0.1% | -26.9pp | $13K | awaiting resolution |
| $500M | 0.4% | -4.0pp | $8K | awaiting resolution |
| $100M | 100.0% | +0.2pp | $13K | awaiting resolution |
| $800M | 0.1% | -0.6pp | $13K | awaiting resolution |
| $1B | 0.1% | -0.8pp | $9K | awaiting resolution |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.