Politics
MediumMarket data current
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
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Current implied probability
0%Recent probability movement (down 0.1pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
0%
24h Change
-0.05pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
95
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2028, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
1%
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 0.7% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Candace Owens | 0.3% | — | $651K | active |
| Doug Burgum | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $676K | active |
| Tim Scott | 0.1% | -0.05pp | $705K | active |
| Donald Trump | 2.4% | — | $379K | active |
| Ted Cruz | 0.9% | — | $1.1M |
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
0%
0%
2%
1%
3%
| active |
| Ron DeSantis | 2.9% | +0.1pp | $303K | active |
| John N. Kennedy | 0.1% | — | $717K | active |
| Tom Cotton | 0.1% | — | $719K | active |
| Rick Scott | 0.3% | — | $706K | active |
| Ivanka Trump | 0.9% | — | $1.0M | active |
| Kristi Noem | 0.3% | -0.1pp | $2.1M | active |
| Tucker Carlson | 1.6% | — | $293K | active |
| J.D. Vance | 42.9% | — | $559K | active |
| Thomas Massie | 0.7% | — | $453K | active |
| Brian Kemp | 0.6% | — | $1.1M | active |
| Josh Hawley | 0.3% | — | $1.1M | active |
| Kim Kardashian | 0.3% | -0.1pp | $2.3M | active |
| Byron Donalds | 0.8% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Marco Rubio | 26.9% | — | $310K | active |
| Joe Kent | 0.5% | — | $1.6M | active |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 0.5% | -0.1pp | $1.1M | active |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 0.7% | — | $1.6M | active |
| Glenn Youngkin | 0.9% | — | $378K | active |
| Elon Musk | 0.8% | — | $2.2M | active |
| Erika Kirk | 0.3% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Greg Abbott | 0.8% | — | $1.8M | active |
| Eric Trump | 0.5% | -0.1pp | $2.1M | active |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 0.8% | — | $1.9M | active |
| John Thune | 0.3% | — | $2.2M | active |
| Rand Paul | 0.8% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Mike Johnson | 0.3% | — | $722K | active |
| Matt Gaetz | 0.3% | — | $2.2M | active |
| Elise Stefanik | 0.6% | — | $2.2M | active |
| Tom Brady | 0.3% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 1.1% | — | $749K | active |
| Steve Bannon | 0.5% | — | $2.2M | active |
| Mike Pence | 0.3% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 1.1% | — | $586K | active |
| Pete Hegseth | 0.3% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Katie Britt | 0.3% | — | $2.2M | active |
| Nikki Haley | 0.3% | — | $1.3M | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.