Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026?
0%
Limited history
24h activity $205Closes 1 Jan 2027
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 23% probability for this outcome, a +0.6pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
23%Recent probability movement (up 0.6pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
23%
24h Change
+0.6pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 5.3pp, from 15% to 20%, between 12:00 and 13:51 UTC.
16%
30 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC
15%
30 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC
15%
30 Sept 2026, 23:00 UTC
11%
1 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
20%
2 Oct 2026, 13:51 UTC
23%
5 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.6pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.0% | 22.8% | +0.6pp | $4K | active |
| ≤1.0% | 0.3% | — | $23K | active |
| ≥ 4.5% | 11.0% | -5.6pp | $9K | active |
| 3.25% | 0.3% | +0.05pp | $47K | active |
| 3.75% | 0.6% | -0.6pp | $12K | active |
| 1.75% | 0.3% | — | $35K | active |
| 1.25 | 0.3% | — | $31K | active |
| 3.0% | 0.3% | — | $44K | active |
| 4.25% | 47.4% | -0.6pp | $5K | active |
| 2.0% | 0.3% | — | $38K | active |
| 3.5% | 1.6% | -0.05pp | $44K | active |
| 2.5% | 0.3% | — | $36K | active |
| 2.25% | 0.3% | — | $29K | active |
| 2.75% | 0.3% | -0.2pp | $36K | active |
| 1.5% | 0.1% | -0.05pp | $31K | active |
Probability sum: 86.0% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC