Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
0%
Limited history-0.1pp
24h activity $674Closes 6 Oct 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 98% probability for this outcome, a +2.1pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
98%Recent probability movement (up 2.1pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
98%
24h Change
+2.1pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 2.5pp, from 94% to 91%, between 21:00 and 22:00 UTC.
94%
28 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC
94%
28 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC
94%
28 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC
94%
28 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC
91%
28 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC
98%
2 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 2.1pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 97.5% | +2.1pp | $51K | active |
| CAQ | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $64K | active |
| PLQ | 2.1% | -0.3pp | $74K | active |
| PCQ | 0.5% | +0.4pp | $49K | active |
| PVQ | 0.1% | — | $74K | active |
| QS | 0.1% | — | $60K | active |
Probability sum: 100.3% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
Why this may have moved
Checked 22 Sept 2026, 11:26 UTC
Attribution may be stale because this market has newer stored metrics.
winnipegfreepress.com published a matched report during the movement window: Quebec election campaign enters 27th day as final debate nears – Winnipeg Free Press
The source title directly matched the market entity and driver terms (win), so this may explain the move.
winnipegfreepress.com
Matched source title terms: win.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 6 Oct 2026, 03:59 UTC