Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?
7%
Limited history
24h activity $257Closes 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 12% probability for this outcome, a -0.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
12%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
12%
24h Change
-0.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 1.1pp, from 12% to 13%, between 18:00 and 19:00 UTC.
10%
10 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC
10%
10 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
10%
10 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
10%
10 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
13%
12 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
12%
14 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.5pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $11K and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | 7.0% | — | $16K | active |
| Gavin Newsom | 14.0% | — | $15K | active |
| Donald Trump | 3.4% | -0.3pp | $18K | active |
| Jon Ossoff | 5.3% | -0.1pp | $13K | active |
| Pete Buttigieg | 10.9% | -1.1pp | $11K | active |
| J.D. Vance | 5.8% | -0.7pp | $12K | active |
| Josh Hawley | 5.4% | +0.5pp | $12K | active |
| Zohran Mamdani | 3.7% | +0.3pp | $11K | active |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 13.0% | +0.5pp | $12K | active |
| Nikki Haley | 6.0% | +0.8pp | $12K | active |
| Oprah Winfrey | 4.0% | +0.3pp | $12K | active |
| Andrew Yang | 4.8% | +0.4pp | $13K | active |
| Tucker Carlson | 4.7% | +1.4pp | $12K | active |
| Rand Paul | 6.5% | +0.5pp | $11K | active |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 5.5% | — | $13K | active |
| Beto O’Rourke | 5.3% | — | $11K | active |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 3.9% | -0.3pp | $11K | active |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 6.0% | — | $12K | active |
| Hunter Biden | 4.5% | — | $13K | active |
| Ivanka Trump | 3.2% | -0.1pp | $11K | active |
| MrBeast | 1.9% | — | $11K | active |
| Erika Kirk | 3.5% | +0.05pp | $11K | active |
| Katie Britt | 2.8% | +0.1pp | $14K | active |
| Andy Beshear | 9.7% | -0.3pp | $13K | active |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 3.6% | +0.1pp | $15K | active |
| Steve Bannon | 3.3% | -0.05pp | $12K | active |
| Kristi Noem | 4.2% | — | $11K | active |
| Stephen A. Smith | 2.0% | +0.3pp | $12K | active |
| Rahm Emanuel | 25.6% | +0.8pp | $515 | active |
| Cory Booker | 7.3% | — | $12K | active |
| Ted Cruz | 10.4% | -0.1pp | $11K | active |
| LeBron James | 1.8% | -1.1pp | $13K | active |
| Hillary Clinton | 1.3% | +0.5pp | $13K | active |
| Mike Pence | 2.2% | -0.3pp | $12K | active |
| Michelle Obama | 2.8% | -0.3pp | $13K | active |
| Mark Cuban | 1.1% | +0.2pp | $11K | active |
| Chelsea Clinton | 1.1% | +0.1pp | $13K | active |
| Josh Shapiro | 5.5% | +0.1pp | $12K | active |
| Mark Kelly | 12.1% | -0.5pp | $11K | active |
| Marco Rubio | 3.9% | +0.1pp | $11K | active |
| Candace Owens | 2.2% | +0.1pp | $11K | active |
| Barack Obama | 2.2% | -0.6pp | $14K | active |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 3.0% | -0.1pp | $12K | active |
| Byron Donalds | 0.3% | — | $12K | active |
| Elon Musk | 3.0% | -0.1pp | $10K | active |
| Tom Brady | 4.9% | +0.9pp | $11K | active |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 1.4% | -0.3pp | $11K | active |
| John Fetterman | 3.6% | -0.2pp | $10K | active |
| Roy Cooper | 1.4% | +0.1pp | $11K | active |
| Wes Moore | 3.4% | +0.3pp | $11K | active |
| Glenn Youngkin | 7.5% | +0.1pp | $12K | active |
| Tim Walz | 1.4% | +0.2pp | $11K | active |
| Kim Kardashian | 2.1% | — | $10K | active |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 2.1% | +0.3pp | $11K | active |
| Jared Polis | 2.8% | +0.3pp | $12K | active |
| George Clooney | 4.5% | — | $17K | active |
| John Thune | 4.3% | +0.2pp | $11K | active |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 3.4% | +0.4pp | $11K | active |
| Brian Kemp | 5.5% | +0.5pp | $12K | active |
| Jon Stewart | 4.8% | +0.5pp | $12K | active |
| Gina Raimondo | 7.6% | — | $13K | active |
| Elise Stefanik | 2.5% | — | $10K | active |
| Bernie Sanders | 2.4% | +0.3pp | $11K | active |
| Greg Abbott | 4.5% | +0.5pp | $11K | active |
| Phil Murphy | 3.1% | +0.1pp | $10K | active |
| Raphael Warnock | 9.5% | — | $11K | active |
| J.B. Pritzker | 6.5% | — | $12K | active |
| Matt Gaetz | 2.3% | +0.1pp | $11K | active |
| Liz Cheney | 4.2% | -0.05pp | $11K | active |
| Ron DeSantis | 10.8% | +0.1pp | $12K | active |
| Don Lemon | 6.8% | — | $12K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC