Finance
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
6%
Limited history+1.1pp
24h activity $23KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 93% probability for this outcome, a -0.6pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
93%Recent probability movement (down 0.6pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
93%
24h Change
-0.6pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.6pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (25 bps) | 5.8% | +1.1pp | $340K | active |
| 0 (0 bps) | 93.0% | -0.6pp | $248K | active |
| 2 (50 bps) | 0.7% | -0.2pp | $135K | active |
| 3 (75 bps) | 0.1% | — | $294K | active |
| 4 (100 bps) | 0.1% | — | $202K | active |
| 5 (125 bps) | 0.1% | — | $221K | active |
| 8 (200 bps) | 0.1% | — | $290K | active |
| 7 (175 bps) | 0.1% | — | $164K | active |
| 6 (150 bps) | 0.1% | — | $144K | active |
| 12+ (300+ bps) | 0.1% | — | $260K | active |
| 9 (225 bps) | 0.1% | — | $496K | active |
| 11 (275 bps) | 0.1% | — | $539K | active |
| 10 (250 bps) | 0.1% | — | $522K | active |
Probability sum: 100.2% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
6%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%