Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027?
15%
Limited history-2.0pp
24h activity $456Closes 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 29% probability for this outcome, a +19.3pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
29%Recent probability movement (up 19.3pp) is strong, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
29%
24h Change
+19.3pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 25.8pp, from 10% to 36%, between 02:00 and 03:00 UTC.
11%
13 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
11%
13 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
11%
14 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
11%
14 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
36%
17 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
29%
18 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is up 19.3pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Buttigieg | 29.4% | +19.3pp | $23K | active |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 14.5% | -2.0pp | $15K | active |
| Rahm Emanuel | 27.4% | +4.5pp | $21K | active |
| Kristi Noem | 3.2% | -0.9pp | $12K | active |
| Mark Kelly | 12.1% | — | $12K | active |
| J.D. Vance | 5.8% | -0.5pp | $13K | active |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 5.0% | -0.4pp | $14K | active |
| Mark Cuban | 1.3% | -0.1pp | $11K | active |
| Phil Murphy | 47.3% | +0.05pp | $135 | active |
| Ron DeSantis | 11.2% | +0.4pp | $11K | active |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 3.0% | -0.3pp | $12K | active |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 3.6% | — | $15K | active |
| Gavin Newsom | 13.5% | — | $16K | active |
| Donald Trump | 3.3% | -0.1pp | $17K | active |
| Kamala Harris | 7.1% | -0.3pp | $16K | active |
| Hunter Biden | 4.2% | -0.3pp | $12K | active |
| Ivanka Trump | 3.2% | — | $11K | active |
| Zohran Mamdani | 3.4% | — | $12K | active |
| Tucker Carlson | 4.3% | +0.6pp | $12K | active |
| MrBeast | 1.8% | — | $11K | active |
| Jon Ossoff | 4.5% | -0.4pp | $13K | active |
| Erika Kirk | 3.9% | +0.5pp | $11K | active |
| Katie Britt | 2.8% | +0.3pp | $14K | active |
| Andy Beshear | 7.4% | — | $13K | active |
| Steve Bannon | 3.0% | +0.05pp | $12K | active |
| Rand Paul | 6.0% | -0.5pp | $11K | active |
| Stephen A. Smith | 0.6% | -0.05pp | $12K | active |
| Cory Booker | 6.9% | — | $13K | active |
| Oprah Winfrey | 3.1% | -0.9pp | $11K | active |
| Ted Cruz | 10.3% | +0.05pp | $12K | active |
| Andrew Yang | 4.5% | -0.4pp | $13K | active |
| LeBron James | 2.2% | -0.1pp | $13K | active |
| Hillary Clinton | 1.4% | — | $13K | active |
| Mike Pence | 2.2% | — | $12K | active |
| Michelle Obama | 3.0% | +0.1pp | $13K | active |
| Chelsea Clinton | 1.1% | — | $14K | active |
| Josh Shapiro | 5.5% | — | $12K | active |
| Marco Rubio | 3.9% | — | $11K | active |
| Candace Owens | 3.0% | — | $11K | active |
| Beto O’Rourke | 5.3% | +0.05pp | $12K | active |
| Barack Obama | 2.3% | -0.4pp | $14K | active |
| Byron Donalds | 0.7% | +0.05pp | $12K | active |
| Elon Musk | 3.1% | — | $10K | active |
| Tom Brady | 3.9% | -0.7pp | $12K | active |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 5.5% | — | $13K | active |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 3.6% | -0.05pp | $11K | active |
| Josh Hawley | 5.3% | -0.05pp | $12K | active |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 1.4% | — | $11K | active |
| John Fetterman | 3.3% | — | $10K | active |
| Roy Cooper | 1.4% | -0.05pp | $11K | active |
| Wes Moore | 3.3% | — | $12K | active |
| Tim Walz | 1.4% | — | $11K | active |
| Glenn Youngkin | 7.5% | -0.1pp | $12K | active |
| Kim Kardashian | 2.2% | -0.05pp | $10K | active |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 2.1% | — | $11K | active |
| Jared Polis | 1.6% | -1.2pp | $12K | active |
| George Clooney | 4.5% | — | $16K | active |
| John Thune | 3.9% | +0.1pp | $11K | active |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 3.5% | -0.05pp | $11K | active |
| Nikki Haley | 6.0% | -1.1pp | $11K | active |
| Brian Kemp | 5.5% | — | $12K | active |
| Jon Stewart | 4.7% | — | $12K | active |
| Gina Raimondo | 8.3% | +0.6pp | $12K | active |
| Elise Stefanik | 2.5% | +0.05pp | $11K | active |
| Bernie Sanders | 2.4% | — | $11K | active |
| Greg Abbott | 4.5% | -0.8pp | $11K | active |
| Raphael Warnock | 9.5% | — | $13K | active |
| J.B. Pritzker | 6.5% | — | $11K | active |
| Matt Gaetz | 2.6% | — | $11K | active |
| Liz Cheney | 5.0% | +0.1pp | $12K | active |
| Don Lemon | 6.7% | -0.05pp | $12K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC