Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
56%
Limited history+2.5pp
24h activity $92KCloses 5 Oct 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 12% probability for this outcome, a -1.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
12%Probability is barely changed (down 1.5pp). High liquidity supports the reading, but this is not a meaningful move.
Signal: HighCurrent
12%
24h Change
-1.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 4.5pp, from 16% to 12%, between 23:00 and 00:00 UTC.
15%
27 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC
15%
27 Sept 2026, 23:00 UTC
15%
28 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
15%
28 Sept 2026, 01:00 UTC
12%
2 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
12%
2 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.5pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renan Santos | 55.5% | +2.5pp | $56K | active |
| Augusto Cury | 32.9% | -0.3pp | $54K | active |
| Ronaldo Caiado | 11.5% | -1.5pp | $52K | active |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 0.1% | -0.7pp | $79K | active |
| Romeu Zema | 0.5% | +0.3pp | $62K | active |
| Ratinho Júnior | 0.1% | — | $58K | active |
| Pablo Marçal | 0.1% | — | $55K | active |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 0.1% | — | $49K | active |
| Eduardo Bolsonaro | 0.1% | — | $59K | active |
| Fernando Haddad | 0.1% | — | $61K | active |
| Michelle Bolsonaro | 0.1% | — | $55K | active |
| Tarcisio de Freitas | 0.1% | — | $55K | active |
| Jair Bolsonaro | 0.1% | — | $55K | active |
| Camilo Santana | 0.1% | — | $58K | active |
| Geraldo Alckmin | 0.1% | — | $57K | active |
| Aldo Rebelo | 0.1% | — | $57K | active |
| Eduardo Leite | 0.1% | — | $58K | active |
| Tereza Cristina | 0.1% | — | $57K | active |
| Helder Barbalho | 0.1% | — | $58K | active |
Probability sum: 101.2% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 5 Oct 2026, 03:59 UTC