Geopolitics
MediumMarket data current
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?
67%
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Current
43%
24h Change
-7.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
45
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved noticeably over 24h. The recorded move is down 7.0pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Why this may have moved
Move attribution has not been checked for this market yet.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Dobropillia by October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. This market refers to the city of Dobropillia (48.47, 37.08), which borders Sviatohorivka and Hannivka. Other Ukrainian towns/cities named Dobropillia will not be considered for resolution. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Dobropillia is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
67%
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 66.5% | +1.5pp | $26K | active |
| October 31 | 42.5% | -7.0pp | $4K | active |
| January 31 | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -0.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| April 30 | 0.0% | -1.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| May 31 | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
Current implied probability
43%Probability moved noticeably over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.
Signal: LowThis market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
| March 31 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.