Geopolitics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
2%
Limited history-0.5pp
24h activity $40KCloses 30 Jun 2026
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Current implied probability
10%Recent probability movement (up 0.5pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
10%
24h Change
+0.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 31 | 2.1% | -0.5pp | $160K | active |
| September 30 | 4.7% | -0.1pp | $194K | active |
| December 31 | 9.5% | +0.5pp | $55K | active |
| April 30 | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| May 31 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| April 15 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| March 31 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| July 31 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| June 24 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 23:55 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
2%
5%