Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
17%
Limited history-1.1pp
24h activity $4KCloses 14 Sept 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 79% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
79%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: MediumCurrent
79%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 3.0pp, from 81% to 78%, between 06:00 and 07:00 UTC.
81%
13 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
81%
13 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
81%
13 Oct 2026, 15:02 UTC
81%
13 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
78%
15 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC
79%
17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ulf Kristersson | 16.7% | -1.1pp | $70K | active |
| Magdalena Andersson | 78.5% | — | $133K | active |
| Jimmie Åkesson | 0.8% | -0.2pp | $55K | active |
| Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist | 1.8% | -0.1pp | $42K | active |
| Ebba Busch | 3.1% | +0.3pp | $37K | active |
| Nooshi Dadgostar | 0.1% | — | $153K | active |
| Simona Mohamsson | 0.1% | — | $120K | active |
| Daniel Helldén | 0.1% | — | $167K | active |
| Anna-Karin Hatt | 0.1% | — | $22K | active |
| Amanda Lind | 0.1% | — | $179K | active |
Probability sum: 101.0% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 14 Sept 2026, 03:59 UTC