Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Gretchen Whitmer announce a Presidential run before 2027?
8%
Limited history-3.0pp
24h activity $857Closes 31 Dec 2026
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Current implied probability
9%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
9%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gretchen Whitmer | 8.0% | -3.0pp | $16K | active |
| Marco Rubio | 4.5% | -1.4pp | $18K | active |
| Jon Ossoff | 3.6% | +0.1pp | $16K | active |
| Gavin Newsom | 12.5% | — | $22K | active |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 8.0% | — | $12K | active |
| Mark Kelly | 7.5% | — | $14K | active |
| Ted Cruz | 7.0% | -1.3pp | $13K | active |
| Candace Owens | 4.2% | +0.1pp | $15K | active |
| Brian Kemp | 6.5% | — | $14K | active |
| Hunter Biden | 5.0% | +1.8pp | $17K | active |
| Steve Bannon | 6.0% | +0.5pp | $15K | active |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 7.5% | — | $12K | active |
| Kamala Harris | 9.5% | -1.0pp | $22K | active |
| Donald Trump | 6.8% | — | $22K | active |
| Tim Walz | 1.6% | +0.05pp | $12K | active |
| Ivanka Trump | 4.5% | -0.2pp | $12K | active |
| Barack Obama | 2.0% | +0.1pp | $15K | active |
| Bernie Sanders | 1.3% | — | $13K | active |
| Elise Stefanik | 3.6% | — | $11K | active |
| Erika Kirk | 3.8% | — | $13K | active |
| Mike Pence | 4.0% | -0.05pp | $15K | active |
| Zohran Mamdani | 2.8% | -0.1pp | $14K | active |
| J.D. Vance | 6.0% | +0.5pp | $17K | active |
| MrBeast | 2.3% | — | $15K | active |
| Tucker Carlson | 10.5% | — | $15K | active |
| Katie Britt | 1.3% | — | $15K | active |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 7.5% | — | $16K | active |
| Kristi Noem | 4.1% | — | $12K | active |
| Rand Paul | 5.5% | — | $12K | active |
| Andy Beshear | 7.5% | — | $19K | active |
| Stephen A. Smith | 7.5% | — | $14K | active |
| Oprah Winfrey | 0.8% | +0.6pp | $12K | active |
| LeBron James | 3.3% | — | $13K | active |
| Cory Booker | 5.5% | — | $19K | active |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 4.5% | — | $15K | active |
| Pete Buttigieg | 8.5% | — | $14K | active |
| Andrew Yang | 0.8% | — | $12K | active |
| Michelle Obama | 2.0% | — | $13K | active |
| Hillary Clinton | 2.6% | — | $15K | active |
| Chelsea Clinton | 1.4% | — | $14K | active |
| Rahm Emanuel | 9.0% | — | $15K | active |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 2.9% | -0.5pp | $15K | active |
| Josh Shapiro | 5.5% | — | $14K | active |
| Byron Donalds | 2.0% | -0.1pp | $12K | active |
| Beto O’Rourke | 2.5% | — | $11K | active |
| Tom Brady | 1.9% | — | $14K | active |
| Elon Musk | 2.5% | +0.2pp | $11K | active |
| Mark Cuban | 5.5% | — | $18K | active |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 6.5% | — | $12K | active |
| Josh Hawley | 3.0% | +0.1pp | $14K | active |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 0.7% | +0.05pp | $12K | active |
| John Fetterman | 4.5% | +3.0pp | $365 | active |
| Wes Moore | 4.0% | +0.8pp | $12K | active |
| Roy Cooper | 1.4% | — | $12K | active |
| Kim Kardashian | 2.6% | — | $13K | active |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 1.9% | +0.2pp | $12K | active |
| Jared Polis | 1.4% | +0.3pp | $12K | active |
| Glenn Youngkin | 7.7% | +0.1pp | $12K | active |
| George Clooney | 5.5% | — | $15K | active |
| John Thune | 4.2% | — | $11K | active |
| Gina Raimondo | 4.0% | — | $12K | active |
| Greg Abbott | 3.8% | — | $11K | active |
| Phil Murphy | 2.0% | — | $11K | active |
| Nikki Haley | 4.3% | — | $11K | active |
| J.B. Pritzker | 6.5% | — | $13K | active |
| Jon Stewart | 3.5% | — | $11K | active |
| Raphael Warnock | 7.0% | — | $11K | active |
| Matt Gaetz | 7.5% | — | $12K | active |
| Liz Cheney | 2.6% | — | $15K | active |
| Ron DeSantis | 3.6% | +0.2pp | $11K | active |
| Don Lemon | 8.7% | — | $13K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
8%
5%
4%
13%
8%
8%