Finance
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.1% before 2027?
8%
Limited history-4.5pp
24h activity $5KCloses 31 Dec 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 33% probability for this outcome, a -1.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
33%Probability changed slightly over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.
Signal: LowCurrent
33%
24h Change
-1.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
29
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 34.0pp, from 46% to 12%, between 17:00 and 18:00 UTC.
46%
21 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC
12%
21 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC
31%
21 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC
35%
21 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC
34%
21 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC
33%
22 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.5pp. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read; liquidity is $4K and 24h activity is $2K. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 4.1% | 7.5% | -4.5pp | $19K | active |
| Below 4.5% | 32.5% | -1.5pp | $4K | active |
| Below 4.4% | 25.0% | -8.5pp | $3K | active |
| Below 4.6% | 41.0% | -7.0pp | $1K | active |
| Below 4.3% | 16.5% | -8.5pp | $3K | active |
| Below 4.2% | 11.5% | +2.0pp | $7K | active |
| Below 3.9% | 2.5% | -0.5pp | $38K | active |
| Below 3.8% | 2.2% | +0.05pp | $23K | active |
| Below 4.7% | 52.5% | +0.5pp | $541 | active |
| Below 1.0% | 1.0% | — | $848 | active |
| Below 3.7% | 2.9% | -0.3pp | $39K | active |
| Below 3.5% | 2.5% | +0.05pp | $2K | active |
| Below 3.6% | 2.3% | -0.1pp | $23K | active |
| Below 3.0% | 1.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Below 2.0% | 1.5% | — | $1K | active |
| Below 4.0% | 100.0% | +0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC