Politics

Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Current implied probability

Market data currentMeaningful move-2.7pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (down 2.7pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Current

24h Change

-2.7pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

100

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 2.0%
No implied probability: 98.0%
Liquidity: $19K
24h activity: $735
Lifetime volume: $17K
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 17 Aug 2026, 07:00 UTC

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Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 2.7pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
Lisa Murkowski	0.3%	+0.1pp	$12K	active
Edna DeVries	0.1%	—	$13K	active
Treg Taylor	19.8%	+10.8pp	$2K	active
Bernadette Wilson	26.0%	—	$2K	active
Matt Heilala	0.3%	+0.1pp	$12K	active
Tom Begich	48.0%	-5.0pp	$5K	active
Click Bishop	1.3%	—	$18K	active
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	2.0%	-2.7pp	$19K	active
Shelley Hughes	0.3%	+0.1pp	$12K	active
David Bronson	2.2%	-4.3pp	$15K	active
Nancy Dahlstrom	0.3%	-0.3pp	$18K	active
James Parkin	0.3%	—	$15K	active
Bill Walker	0.3%	—	$13K	active
Bruce Walden	0.1%	—	$15K	active
Mary Peltola	0.4%	-0.05pp	$14K	active
Adam Crum	0.1%	—	$11K	active
Matt Claman	0.3%	-0.05pp	$13K	active
Hank Kroll	0.1%	—	$13K	active
Lesil McGuire	0.1%	—	$11K	active
Jessica Faircloth	0.1%	—	$10K	active
Gregg Brelsford	0.1%	—	$11K	active
Destry J. Payne Sr.	0.1%	—	$11K	active

Probability sum: 102.3% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 3 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC