Sport
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-06?
61%
Limited history+23.5pp
24h activity $18KCloses 5 Nov 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 13% probability for this outcome, a -21.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
13%Probability moved down 21.5pp with solid liquidity and activity backing the shift.
Signal: HighCurrent
13%
24h Change
-21.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 20.5pp, from 34% to 13%, between 00:00 and 01:00 UTC.
34%
13 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
34%
13 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
35%
14 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
34%
14 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
34%
14 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
13%
18 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved sharply over 24h. The recorded move is down 21.5pp. Liquidity and activity are strong enough to treat this as a more reliable consensus shift.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles FC | 61.0% | +23.5pp | $16K | active |
| New York City FC | 13.0% | -21.5pp | $17K | active |
| Draw (New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC) | 27.5% | — | $9K | active |
Probability sum: 101.5% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
In the upcoming game, scheduled for May 6, 2026 If New York City FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Resolution source: https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 5 Nov 2026, 00:30 UTC