Politics

Will Labour Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

Current implied probability

3%
Market data currentStable consensus-0.3pp (24h)

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Current

3%

24h Change

-0.3pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

5

0%25%50%75%100%8:009:0010:0011:0012:00

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.3pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $11K and 24h volume is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
2.5%
No implied probability
97.5%
Liquidity
$11K
Market Activity
$495
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
15 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTC
Verify on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC

Related Markets

Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

OutcomeProbability24h changeLiquidityState
Green Party33.5%—$8Kactive
Te Pāti Māori0.8%-0.05pp$11Kactive
New Zealand First Party54.5%—$10Kactive
ACT New Zealand1.0%-0.1pp$12Kactive
Labour Party2.5%-0.3pp$11Kactive
National Party7.8%+1.9pp$11Kactive

Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.