Finance
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
56%
Limited history+10.3pp
24h activity $172KCloses 2 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 41% probability for this outcome, a -10.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
41%Recent probability movement (down 10.0pp) is strong, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
41%
24h Change
-10.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 14.0pp, from 55% to 41%, between 06:00 and 07:00 UTC.
55%
28 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC
55%
28 Sept 2026, 15:25 UTC
55%
28 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC
55%
28 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC
41%
29 Sept 2026, 07:00 UTC
41%
2 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is down 10.0pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 56.4% | +10.3pp | $32K | active |
| Waymo | 0.1% | — | $83K | active |
| SHEIN | 0.1% | — | $76K | active |
| Discord | 0.1% | — | $82K | active |
| Stripe | 0.1% | — | $46K | active |
| SpaceX | 40.5% | -10.0pp | $15K | active |
| Perplexity AI | 0.1% | — | $95K | active |
| OpenAI | 0.8% | +0.1pp | $49K | active |
| Revolut | 0.1% | — | $88K | active |
| ByteDance | 0.1% | +0.05pp | $32K | active |
| Kraken | 0.1% | — | $101K | active |
| Databricks | 0.1% | — | $22K | active |
Probability sum: 98.1% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 2 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC