Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 42% probability for this outcome, a +12.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
42%Recent probability movement (up 12.5pp) is strong, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
42%
24h Change
+12.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 12.5pp, from 29% to 42%, between 16:00 and 17:00 UTC.
33%
12 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
33%
12 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
33%
12 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
33%
12 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
42%
15 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
42%
16 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is up 12.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35-39 | 42.0% | +12.5pp | $23K | active |
| <30 | 11.3% | -10.6pp | $2K | active |
| 40-44 | 14.0% | -4.5pp | $17K | active |
| 30-34 | 30.6% | -4.8pp | $957 | active |
| 45-49 | 3.8% | -0.4pp | $13K | active |
| 55+ | 3.8% | -3.9pp | $12K | active |
| 50-54 | 1.8% | -0.1pp | $12K | active |
Probability sum: 107.3% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Labour Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Labour Party in this election. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Resolution source: https://elections.nz/. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 8 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC