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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 80% probability for this outcome, a -0.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
80%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
80%
24h Change
-0.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 1.5pp, from 78% to 80%, between 06:00 and 07:00 UTC.
78%
8 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
78%
8 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
78%
8 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
78%
9 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
80%
9 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC
80%
13 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.5pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $476 and 24h activity is $20. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 79.5% | -0.5pp | $476 | active |
| March 31 | 0.0% | +0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if MicroStrategy is removed from either the MSCI World Index or the MSCI USA Index at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” If MicroStrategy is transferred between indexes (e.g., from MSCI World to another MSCI index), that will also count as a removal for the purposes of this market. An official MSCI announcement of removal or transfer will be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution. The resolution source will be official MSCI communication or a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTC