Politics

Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Current implied probability

Market data currentStable consensus-0.1pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (down 0.1pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Current

24h Change

-0.1pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

100

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 0.3%
No implied probability: 99.8%
Liquidity: $1.9M
24h activity: $14K
Lifetime volume: $17.2M
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 17 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTC

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Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
Wes Moore	5.3%	+3.8pp	$669K	active
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	20.4%	-0.6pp	$352K	active
Josh Shapiro	4.8%	—	$425K	active
Jon Ossoff	14.8%	—	$333K	active
Abigail Spanberger	0.1%	—	$2.0M	active
Hunter Biden	0.6%	—	$1.2M	active
Oprah Winfrey	0.3%	—	$2.9M	active
Elissa Slotkin	0.3%	—	$1.6M	active
Gavin Newsom	15.6%	-1.4pp	$330K	active
Ruben Gallego	0.3%	—	$1.2M	active
George Clooney	0.3%	—	$2.8M	active
Kim Kardashian	0.1%	—	$2.7M	active
Pete Buttigieg	5.3%	—	$465K	active
Roy Cooper	0.3%	—	$1.8M	active
MrBeast	0.3%	—	$2.8M	active
LeBron James	0.3%	—	$2.9M	active
Mark Cuban	0.6%	—	$1.9M	active
Cory Booker	0.6%	—	$2.0M	active
Rahm Emanuel	2.4%	—	$797K	active
Liz Cheney	0.3%	—	$2.7M	active
Hillary Clinton	0.3%	—	$2.9M	active
Bernie Sanders	0.6%	—	$891K	active
Mark Kelly	2.9%	-0.1pp	$313K	active
Jasmine Crockett	0.3%	—	$2.1M	active
Chelsea Clinton	0.5%	—	$767K	active
Kamala Harris	7.5%	—	$337K	active
J.B. Pritzker	1.1%	—	$448K	active
Stephen A. Smith	0.3%	—	$1.4M	active
Zohran Mamdani	0.3%	—	$2.6M	active
Andy Beshear	2.3%	—	$501K	active
Gina Raimondo	0.3%	—	$2.3M	active
John Fetterman	0.3%	—	$2.4M	active
Beto O’Rourke	0.3%	—	$2.8M	active
Jared Polis	0.3%	—	$991K	active
Tim Walz	0.1%	—	$2.9M	active
Chris Murphy	0.3%	-0.1pp	$1.9M	active
Ro Khanna	2.3%	—	$250K	active
Barack Obama	0.3%	—	$2.5M	active
Michelle Obama	0.7%	—	$2.2M	active
Adam Schiff	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Graham Platner	0.3%	—	$2.4M	active
Phil Murphy	0.1%	—	$2.9M	active
Jon Stewart	0.8%	-0.1pp	$313K	active
Raphael Warnock	0.6%	-0.1pp	$1.8M	active
Andrew Yang	0.1%	—	$2.8M	active
Alex Padilla	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Hakeem Jeffries	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
Josh Stein	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Gretchen Whitmer	0.8%	-0.05pp	$248K	active
James Talarico	2.1%	+0.05pp	$273K	active
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson	0.7%	-0.05pp	$905K	active

Probability sum: 99.5% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2028, 00:00 UTC