EAEventAlpha
Politics

Will the Labour Party win 45-49 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

23%Synced 13 Jul 2026, 02:00 UTCMeaningful move+4.5pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (up 4.5pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Current

23%

24h Change

+4.5pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

12

0%25%50%75%100%15:0018:0021:0023:002:00

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is up 4.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
23.0%
No implied probability
77.0%
Liquidity
$15K
Market Activity
$1K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
13 Jul 2026, 02:00 UTC
View on Polymarket

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Will the Labour Party win 45-49 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

Move attribution

Not checked yet

Move attribution has not been checked for this market yet.

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Labour Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Labour Party in this election. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 7 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC

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