Loading the latest market intelligence…
Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 100% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Last recorded probability
100%Trading is no longer treated as active while the final result is pending. The figures below are historical and excluded from live rankings and signals.
Final / last recorded
100%
24h Change
+1.8pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
16
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 0.3pp from 100% to 100%, gradually rather than in one jump.
100%
5 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
98%
5 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
98%
5 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC
98%
5 Oct 2026, 08:00 UTC
98%
5 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC
100%
5 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
The Minas Gerais gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 5 Oct 2026, 03:59 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleitinho Azevedo | 100.0% | +1.8pp | $26K | awaiting resolution |
| Alexandre Kalil | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $24K | awaiting resolution |
| Mateus Simões | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $24K | awaiting resolution |
| Patrus Ananias | 0.1% | -1.2pp | $15K | awaiting resolution |
| Marcelo Aro | 0.1% | — | $24K | awaiting resolution |
| Gabriel Azevedo | 0.1% | — | $22K | awaiting resolution |
| Rodrigo Pacheco | 0.1% | — | $29K | awaiting resolution |
| Benoni Mendes | 0.1% | -0.3pp | $19K | awaiting resolution |
| Flávio Roscoe | 0.1% | -0.6pp | $17K | awaiting resolution |
| Tadeu Leite | 0.1% | — | $30K | awaiting resolution |
| Luís Eduardo Falcão | 0.1% | — | $19K | awaiting resolution |
| Nikolas Ferreira | 0.1% | — | $30K | awaiting resolution |
| Alexandre Silveira | 0.1% | — | $31K | awaiting resolution |
| Euclydes Pettersen | 0.1% | — | $19K | awaiting resolution |
| Gleidson Azevedo | 0.1% | — | $16K | awaiting resolution |
| Aécio Neves | 0.1% | — | $31K | awaiting resolution |
| Vittorio Medioli | 0.1% | — | $24K | awaiting resolution |
Probability sum: 100.7% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)