Geopolitics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31?
3%
Limited history+0.4pp
24h activity $19KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 5% probability for this outcome, a -2.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
5%Recent probability movement (down 2.0pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
5%
24h Change
-2.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
34
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 0.0pp from 5% to 5%, gradually rather than in one jump.
5%
10 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
5%
10 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
5%
10 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
5%
10 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
4%
11 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC
5%
12 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 2.0pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afghanistan | 3.1% | +0.4pp | $53K | active |
| Pakistan | 4.5% | -2.0pp | $33K | active |
| Qatar | 3.0% | -1.2pp | $29K | active |
| Kuwait | 8.7% | -0.2pp | $32K | active |
| Tunisia | 5.5% | — | $32K | active |
| North Korea | 3.0% | +0.1pp | $31K | active |
| Saudi Arabia | 5.0% | -0.2pp | $26K | active |
| Iran | 2.5% | +0.3pp | $31K | active |
| Indonesia | 3.5% | +0.05pp | $32K | active |
| Syria | 3.5% | -0.05pp | $24K | active |
| Bangladesh | 1.3% | — | $29K | active |
| Cuba | 3.4% | — | $48K | active |
| Iraq | 4.3% | +0.05pp | $29K | active |
| Malaysia | 2.5% | -0.05pp | $31K | active |
| Lebanon | 7.0% | — | $30K | awaiting resolution |
| Venezuela | 16.0% | +2.0pp | $24K | awaiting resolution |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC