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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 6% probability for this outcome, a -1.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
6%Recent probability movement (down 1.0pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
6%
24h Change
-1.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 2.0pp, from 9% to 7%, between 06:00 and 07:00 UTC.
8%
28 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC
8%
28 Sept 2026, 15:25 UTC
8%
28 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC
8%
28 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC
7%
1 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC
6%
2 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.0pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 4 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC