Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Patrick Roath be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?
24%
Limited history-4.5pp
24h activity $2KCloses 1 Sept 2026
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Current implied probability
77%Recent probability movement (up 5.0pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
77%
24h Change
+5.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is up 5.0pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Lynch | 77.0% | +5.0pp | $29K | active |
| Patrick Roath | 23.5% | -4.5pp | $8K | active |
| Andrew Zylberfink | 0.1% | — | $11K | active |
Probability sum: 100.5% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 1, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
24%
0%